2026 Colorado Winter Wheat Harvest: Smallest Crop Since 1965

The 2026 Colorado wheat harvest, by the numbers

As of July 10, Colorado's 2026 winter wheat harvest was 80% complete - well ahead of the five-year average pace of 18% for this date. The speed isn't a good sign: fields dried up early because there wasn't much crop left to cut.

That pace showed up in hyper-local ways, too. The Roggen Farmers Elevator in Roggen, Colorado took in its first load of new-crop wheat on June 17 - the earliest start in the elevator's history - hauled in by Quade Erker of Middle J Farms. Some of the largest operations in eastern Colorado wrapped up harvest in as little as nine days this year, a stretch that would normally run for weeks.

According to USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Colorado is projected to produce 24.3 million bushels of winter wheat in 2026, at an average yield of 19 bushels per acre. That's down from an already-grim 33.6-million-bushel estimate in June - a 27.6% cut in a single month - and roughly half of last year's 38 bushels-per-acre average. If the estimate holds, it will be Colorado's smallest wheat crop since 1965.

Crop abandonment tells the same story: NASS put statewide abandonment at 38% as of late June, the worst since 1967. Dryland yields ranged from 5 to 40 bushels per acre depending on the field, with end-of-June condition ratings at just 9% good, 18% fair, and 73% poor-to-very-poor.

The one bright spot: quality held up. Average test weight is running around 59 pounds per bushel with protein near 12.5-13%, so what did come off the field is grading well.

Why was the 2026 wheat crop so bad?

The crop looked promising heading into winter, but conditions turned fast:

A mild, dry winter pushed wheat to flower three to four weeks earlier than normal, leaving it exposed when hard freezes hit in late March, April, and early May. Precipitation never showed up to compensate - the Akron reporting station in Colorado's wheat belt logged just 3.71 inches in the first half of 2026, about half the normal 6.3 inches. Layer on wheat stem sawfly, mites, viruses, and hail, and fields that looked like a full stand from the road often turned out to have heads with few or no kernels.

"I had farmers who have been farming 50, sometimes 60 years, say it's the worst they've ever seen," Brad Erker, executive director of the Colorado Wheat Administrative Council, told the Colorado Sun. "NASS says it's the worst since 1965, but I think even their numbers are a little optimistic."

How does Colorado compare to Kansas and Nebraska?

Colorado wasn't alone. Nationally, USDA is calling this the smallest U.S. winter wheat harvest since 1972, at roughly 1.048 billion bushels - down 25% from last year.

Despite the widespread shortfall, don't expect a big price bump to soften the blow. "So much of the wheat price is determined on the global market," Erker noted, pointing to record production years in Argentina and Australia that are keeping a lid on prices even as U.S. supply craters.

What does this mean for growers and the local economy?

Custom cutters are feeling it too. Short, stunted stalks mean combine headers have to run closer to the ground, which cuts into the residue that protects next year's crop and adds wear on equipment. "It's not ideal, it can create extra wear and tear on the header and some additional grain loss," said Ryan Haffner of High Plains Harvesting, though newer header technology has helped limit losses.

For many producers, the math on harvesting versus abandoning came down to the cost of running equipment over a field. As Jordan Jensen of Northeast Agri-Services in Sterling put it, "It can cost more to harvest 5-bushel wheat than it's worth" - a decision complicated further by crop insurance adjuster requirements.

The bigger picture: land and equipment markets

Years like this tend to ripple through farm decision-making well past harvest. Tight cash flow after a short crop often shapes what equipment gets replaced versus repaired, and what ground comes up for sale versus stays in the family. The math behind that pressure is straightforward: on a hypothetical 2,000-acre dryland wheat operation, the drop from last year's 38 bushels-per-acre average to this year's 19 bpa works out to roughly 38,000 fewer bushels. With HRW wheat trading near $6.00-$6.25 per bushel on the Kansas City board in early July, that's on the order of $225,000-$240,000 less gross revenue than 2025 - before factoring in the abandoned-acre costs described above. That's the kind of gap that turns a "maybe next year" equipment upgrade into a hard no, or turns a parcel that's been in the family for decades into one that's finally on the market.

"We've already seen it in the calls coming in this month," said Jess Nighswonger. "A short crop like this doesn't always mean people are backing out - sometimes it means they're finally ready to move equipment they'd been holding onto, or sell ground they've been sitting on. Years like this tend to speed up decisions that were already coming."

Land values across the broader region are feeling similar pressure. Premier Farm Credit's appraisal team, which tracks its six-county northeast Colorado territory, reports that dryland farmland values have retracted from their 2014-2015 highs and pasture land, while still up over the past five years, is leveling off; irrigated cropland has held up better in most counties (Yuma being the exception), supported in Morgan County in part by growing dairy demand. Recent sales activity across eastern Colorado shows dryland farmland prices softening from around $2,200/acre toward the $1,950-$2,000/acre range this year, as high input costs, operating note rates near 9%, and ongoing drought push more buyers to the sidelines. That combination - a rough production year meeting a cooling land market - is exactly the kind of environment where knowing your options for equipment and land, whether buying or selling, matters most.

FAQ: 2026 Colorado wheat harvest

How many bushels of wheat did Colorado produce in 2026?
Colorado is estimated to have produced 24.3 million bushels of winter wheat in 2026, based on USDA-NASS's July 10 Crop Production Report.

Why was Colorado's 2026 wheat crop so small?
A dry, mild winter caused wheat to flower three to four weeks early, leaving it vulnerable to hard freezes in late March through early May. Combined with severe drought - about half of normal precipitation in the first six months of the year - plus pest and disease pressure, the crop suffered widespread damage before harvest even began.

When was Colorado's smallest wheat harvest before 2026?
1965. USDA and Colorado Wheat officials both point to 1965 as the last time the state's winter wheat production fell this low.

How did Colorado's 2026 wheat harvest compare to Kansas and Nebraska?
Colorado had the highest share of crop rated poor-to-very-poor (73%) of the three states, though Nebraska's decline was proportionally steeper (roughly half of 2025 production) and Kansas posted the largest absolute drop (down about 130 million bushels).

Did the small 2026 harvest push wheat prices higher?
Only modestly at the local level. Global supply - particularly record production in Argentina and Australia - is offsetting the impact of the shortfall on U.S. wheat prices.

Sources: Colorado Wheat Harvest Report - July 10, 2026, Colorado Wheat Outlook Report - June 19, 2026, The Colorado Sun - "Eastern Colorado farmers brace for worst wheat harvest since 1965", High Plains Journal, Farm Progress - Wheat Tour, Premier Farm Credit - Land Value Trends in Northeast Colorado, April 2026, USDA AMS Colorado Daily Grain Bids, July 1, 2026, USDA NASS Crop Production Reports.

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